NEW DELHI: India’s aim to emerge as a developed country by 2047 is a ” realisable ambition”, said Arvind Panagariya, chairman of the 16th Finance Commission, while also stressing that the country’s per capita income would need to grow at 7.3% in dollar terms to achieve the threshold of $14,000 over the next 24 years.
“Certainly if we do the right things in the years to come, our prospects of getting to the Viksit Bharat ambition of the PM is very much realisable dream and realisable ambition,” he said on Saturday in his address at the 49th Civil Accounts Day.
He said the country’s per-capita income, in 2023-24 dollar terms, is about $ 2,570, which is very low compared to countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, China, United States and other European nations. “What that means is that India has the advantage that it is feasible even with existing technology, reasonable capital accumulation and skill acquisition to push the per capita income. India because of its current low per capita income has an enormous room for catch up and that catch up gives it the opportunity to grow significantly faster,” said Panagariya.
The Columbia University professor said India has gone on to gradually improve its governance system and a lot of economic reforms that had to be done have been done. He said more reforms need to be done and those will happen and this will enable India to sustain high growth rates.
“Today, our per capita income in dollars is about $ 2,500. To get to $ 14,000 in 24 years or by 2047-48, what growth rate do I need for per capita income?.. my per capita income from 2023-24 onward has to grow annually at 7.3%,” he said, adding that the $14,000 was the threshold set by the World Bank for defining developed countries.
Panagariya, who has served as the first chairman of govt think tank Niti Aayog, cited United Nations data which has estimated that population in the country would grow 0.6% by 2050. He said that this would mean that to achieve a 7.3% growth in per capita income, India’s GDP will have to grow at 7.9% during the next 24 years.
“Our growth rate (in real dollar terms) for the last 21 years was at 7.8%… To get from 7.8% (GDP growth) to 7.9% is entirely feasible. Our prospect of Viksit Bharat is a realisable ambition,” he said.
