Nifty 50 could fluctuate between 11 per cent below and 4 per cent above its year-end target of 25,000 as markets face a host of uncertainties, according to a report by BofA Securities.As per news agency ANI, the brokerage said that possible US trade tariffs on Indian goods, a shaky US economic outlook, delays in policy responses, and upcoming elections in six major Indian states could all weigh on investor sentiment. These six states together account for more than 16 per cent of India’s public subsidy and capital expenditure.“We keep our Nifty year-end target intact at 25,000 but expect Nifty to swing -11 per cent to +4 per cent versus this target as markets react to emerging developments around key factors such as trade tariffs, US economic outlook, Fed/RBI cuts, and potential fiscal support to offset tariff impact,” the report noted.BofA expects Nifty earnings to grow 7 per cent in FY26 and 11 per cent in FY27, well below market expectations of 9 per cent and 15 per cent respectively and warned that each earnings season could trigger short-term corrections rather than sustained rallies.The firm added that timely legislative and fiscal reforms, funded by higher RBI dividends, asset sales, fuel duties and leveraged infrastructure spending, could lift market sentiment and provide upside potential.Publicly available data show that both the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex have been struggling, each in the midst of their longest losing streak in over two decades. They are down about 12.6 per cent and 11.7 per cent respectively from their record highs in September last year, with a roughly 3 per cent decline so far this year.On Thursday, however, both indices ended slightly higher in a volatile session. The Sensex rose 57.75 points (0.07 per cent) to 80,597.66, while the Nifty gained 11.95 points (0.05 per cent) to close at 24,631.30. Gains in IT, pharma, banking and consumer durables were offset by losses in metals, oil and gas, and FMCG.Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services, was quoted by news agency PTI as saying that softer US inflation data and a dovish outlook supported IT and pharma stocks, while hopes for a consumption-led recovery lifted banking and consumer durables.Adding to the broader macro picture, S&P Global Ratings has upgraded India’s sovereign credit rating to ‘BBB’ with a stable outlook, the first such improvement in nearly 19 years, citing robust growth, fiscal discipline, and favourable monetary policy.S&P said the possible impact of US tariffs on India would be “manageable,” pointing out that around 60 per cent of the country’s economic growth comes from domestic consumption, making it less reliant on trade.
