Russian oil exports to India have decreased by approximately 25% in February due to sanctions, while US oil shipments have seen a near 100% increase, aligning with India’s commitment to boost American energy purchases to $25 billion.
Data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa quoted by ET shows that Russian ports loaded an average of 1.07 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude oil for India during February 1-20, dropping from 1.4 mbd in January. Conversely, US ports’ crude loading for India rose to 0.2 mbd from 0.11 mbd in January.
Shipments to India from Saudi Arabia increased to 0.91 mbd in February 1-20 from 0.77 mbd, whilst Iraq’s exports rose to 1.08 mbd from 0.8 mbd. UAE’s loadings for India decreased to 0.31 mbd from 0.48 mbd compared to the previous month.
Crude Oil Exports to India
According to Vortexa analyst Rohit Rathod, “We broadly see a decline in exports to India from Russia with other suppliers picking up exports to offset this. Indian imports from the US are likely rising to compensate for Russian light sweet ESPO Blend cargoes, loadings of which have been impacted by the recent US sanctions.”
Also Read | Trump’s tariffs: India’s GDP may take 0.1-0.6% hit from US tariff moves, says Goldman Sachs
The overall Middle East exports to India for February might be lower than the initial 20-day average, as loadings typically decrease in the latter half of each month.
Vessels loaded at Middle Eastern ports in February will reach India within the same month, whilst those from Russian and American ports will arrive in March. The journey duration varies: 45 days from the US, 25-30 days from Russia, and 6-12 days from the Middle East.
The February loading statistics from Russia and US ports will primarily reflect in March’s Indian imports. The data demonstrates the disruption caused by January 10 sanctions on India-Russia oil trade. Buyers must complete all transactions with sanctioned entities by March 12 to avoid secondary sanctions.
Also Read | Tesla India entry: Why Donald Trump has said it would be ‘very unfair’ for Elon Musk’s Tesla to set up a factory in India
Indian refiners are increasing procurement from the Middle East and US to substitute Russian supplies. Following President Donald Trump’s meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced plans to increase US energy purchases significantly.
Additionally, Indian refiners are avoiding Russian shipments that could face delivery complications due to sanctions.
