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News18 reached out to trade experts to gauge how well Kanguva could perform on its opening day worldwide.
Suriya’s Kanguva arrives in cinemas on November 14.
It has been more than two years since Tamil star Suriya had a solo release. After Etharkum Thuninthavan, which was released on March 10, 2022, the promising Tamil hero has only appeared in a handful of cameos, including his much-celebrated role as Rolex in Kamal Haasan’s Vikram. Prior to Etharkum Thuninthavan, Suriya delivered two acclaimed movies—Jai Bhim and Soorarai Pottru—that impressed critics across the board. Soorarai Pottru went on to win five National Film Awards, while Jai Bhim became the most searched film on Google India in 2021. However, both films missed out on a theatrical release due to the coronavirus lockdown.
This makes Kanguva an important film in Suriya’s career. Its success holds great significance for his ‘Anbana fans,’ who have been missing the theatrical celebrations for the past two years. This is also why the film’s producer, Gnanavel Raja, has made bold claims about Kanguva, which is slated for release on November 14. With all eyes on the film as a potential box-office success, News18 reached out to trade experts to gauge how well Kanguva could perform on its opening day worldwide.
While the promotion for Kanguva was in full swing during the making of the film. A clear dip in the buzz towards the release was evident as the film’s pre-booking was delayed. One of the major reasons for the hiccup in the ticket booking was due to several financial troubles and legal cases against the producer. Producer Gnanvelraja in October claimed that the film will collect Rs 2000 crore, which turned out to be a talking point on social media. Going by the pre-release booking and the buzz around the film, it is unclear whether the film will live up to such tall claims. “They are saying Rs 1000 crore but I don’t think the film will collect so much,” says Ramesh Bala, a film trade analyst in Chennai. “Booking for the film is not good due to the delay. Kerala has opened well. However, overseas, the booking has happened only for $120,000 (Rs 1.01 crore) so far. The advance booking could have been better than this.”
According to him, the film will only make Rs 20 crore in Tamil Nadu on Day 1, and the first-day collection worldwide, according to his estimation, is about Rs 75 crore. While the numbers are not on par with recent hits like Sivakarthikeyan’s Amaran and Rajinikanth’s Vettaiyan, Kanguva will end up becoming the biggest opener for Suriya. “There is no doubt about that. Kanguva will be his career best to date,” he adds.
Kanguva was also well promoted in the Telugu region, and it is one of the strong zones of Suriya beyond Tamil Nadu. Deepak, a trade expert from Hyderabad, says that the film will do better than Sivakarthikeyan’s Amaran, which collected Rs 4 crore in Andhra Pradesh. “Kanguva’s promotion is high here. So, naturally, it will do well, but had it been a solo release, the collection would have been more. Now, we have a local release of Matka and there’s the Hollywood film Gladiator II. On top of that, Amaran is still going strong and will not be removed from theatres. Hence, there will be a bit less number of screens for Kanguva. You can never plan these things. No one thought Amaran would go well into its third week. Kanguva has hype but I don’t think the makers will be happy with the numbers.” Echoing the views, Ramesh added that the craze for Kanguva is not as much as the makers would have wanted. “It is moderate for now. People might wait for the reviews. If the response is good, the film will see more footfall. There’s a chance that the weekend collection of Kanguva might end up being more than the first-day collection.
When asked if the trend of Pan-Indian cinema has come to an end. Ramesh said, “Unless a film does well in Hindi, we cannot say it is a Pan-Indian hit. But our (Tami) films were never that, be it Leo or Jailer or even Amaran. There is hype for Pushpa 2. And it might be there for SS Rajamouli’s next film with Mahesh Babu. Other than these big stars, I think only sequels will have the hype if their first parts end up as blockbusters.”
Directed by Siva, Kanguva also marks the Tamil debut of Disha Patani and Bobby Deol. Set in two timelines, Kanguva is the biggest venture for Suriya to date, and it has him in two different avatars. It is expected that Karthi has done a cameo in the movie, which has music by Devi Sri Prasad.