The irregular distribution of rainfall across different states in the country is expected to cause some supply distress in terms of prices of key crops, according to a recent report by ICICI bank, quoted by ANI.The report points out that the low rainfall in some regions could lead to crop damage, creating a supply crunch and pushing prices upward.Multiple states have received rainfall well above the long period average (LPA).Rajasthan recorded 118 percent more than LPA, Madhya Pradesh 57 percent above, Gujarat 48 percent above, and Haryana 24 percent above. Meanwhile, Karnataka (8% above LPA), West Bengal (4 percent above LPA), and Chhattisgarh (3 percent above LPA) have seen rainfall close to normal levels, according to the report, as quoted by the news agency.In contrast, states such as Bihar (42 percent below LPA), Telangana (22 percent below LPA), Andhra Pradesh (15 percent below LPA), Tamil Nadu (6 percent below LPA), Maharashtra (3 percent below LPA), Punjab (2 percent below LPA), and Uttar Pradesh (2 percent below LPA) have experienced lower-than-normal rainfall.“The divergence in rainfall distribution implies a near-term supply-shock in prices of key crops that are produced in affected areas, due to crop damage,” the report stated.Despite the uneven rainfall pattern, kharif sowing has shown encouraging growth. Of the normal sowing target of 109.7 million hectares, 70.8 million hectares have already been sown, compared to 68 million hectares during the same period last year. Notably, the sown area stood at 59.8 million hectares just last week, reported news agency ANI.As of July 21, India’s overall rainfall is measured at 374 mm, marking a 6 percent increase over the long-term average. However, this is a slight decline from the 9 percent surplus recorded last week, primarily due to reduced rainfall in central and northeast regions.Even though the overall kharif sowing season is showing signs of improvements, the bank report warns that uneven rainfall may negatively impact crop production in low rainfall areas, potentially causing supply crunch driven price hikes in the near future.India’s total rainfall as of July 21 was 374 mm, which is 6 percent more than the long-term average. Due mostly to less rainfall in the central and northeastern regions, this represents a minor decrease from the 9 percent surplus that was noted last week.The bank report cautions that uneven rainfall may have a negative impact on crop production in low rainfall areas, potentially leading to supply-driven price hikes in the near future, despite the fact that the overall kharif sowing season is showing signs of improvement.
