NEW DELHI: India’s thirst for oil will rise more than any other country at a million barrels per day (BPD) over the next five years, making it the main driver of global demand growth, the International Energy Agency said in its forecast for 2030 released on Tuesday.India currently consumes five million BPD, about 85% of which is met through imports. Higher dependence will weigh the country’s energy security at a time when, as the IEA report said, the global oil market is in turmoil due to regional military conflicts, trade tensions and resetting of supply trajectory following the Opec+ decision to unwind production curbs.“India’s stellar expansionary trajectory will continue unabated, with GDP growth averaging 6.4% over the forecast period. This is the highest by far of any major economy,” said the report. It identifies “structural advantages such as an expanding middle class, with growing spending power and young population dynamics” as the main propellers of oil demand.“Additionally, improved infrastructure will help boost mobility and car ownership. Oil demand will grow at a relatively fast rate as changing spending patterns, urbanisation and industrialisation make India’s economy more energy intensive,” it said.Aware of the situation, India has charted a multi-pronged course to reduce import dependence with focus on raising domestic production, tapping unconventional sources such as biogas and ethanol, speedy electrification of the mobility sector combined with a thrust on expanding renewable energy capacity.The report, however, gives a rider saying, “With conflicts in the Middle East region at risk of intensifying and trade negotiations ongoing, uncertainties surrounding our forecasts are substantial”.Transport fuels will lead the oil demand growth, said the report, describing it as a “global anomaly” in an oblique reference to expanding fleet of electric vehicles (EVs). Jet fuel demand will rise the fastest.
