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India stock outlook: Markets brace for geopolitical tensions, Fed policy, FPI trends to steer sentiment

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India stock outlook: Markets brace for geopolitical tensions, Fed policy, FPI trends to steer sentiment

Indian stock markets are set for a crucial week ahead, with investors focusing on the pace of foreign portfolio investments (FPIs), the next step of India-US trade talks, and the quarterly results of major listed firms. Globally, the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting will be closely tracked for signs of any transition in interest rate policy.
The past week marked a historic run for Indian equities. Both the Sensex and Nifty posted their longest winning streak of 2025, lifted by renewed foreign interest and growing optimism surrounding an India-US trade agreement. Over the course of the holiday-shortened week, the Sensex surged more than 1,100 points, gaining 1.5 per cent, despite markets being shut on May 1 for Maharashtra Day.
Reliance Industries’ strong Q4 earnings and achievement of becoming the first Indian company to cross Rs 10 lakh crore in total equity also provided a lift to the market. Its shares climbed around 7 per cent over the week.
Adding to the momentum, FPIs turned net buyers in Indian equities for the first time in three months. While the inflows have only just begun picking up pace, the shift in trend has been welcomed by investors.
“The week is expected to be pivotal for global financial markets, with high-impact economic events from the United States and China,” said Bajaj Broking Research. “In the US, all eyes will be on the FOMC Rate Decision scheduled for May 7, as markets closely monitor any changes in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy amid ongoing inflationary pressures and mixed economic signals,” it added, in the note, quoted by ANI.
The brokerage also pointed to crucial Chinese data releases, including trade figures on May 9 and inflation data on May 10, which could offer deeper insights into global demand trends and influence central bank strategies worldwide.
Sentiments back home also improved after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs affecting several countries, including India. The move helped stabilise global equity markets that had earlier been roiled by trade-related uncertainty.
However, geopolitical tensions remain a major risk. The April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, and any fresh developments in India’s relations with Pakistan, are being closely watched by investors for their potential impact on markets.





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