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India set for $50 billion consumption and savings boost: UBS

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MUMBAI: India is set for a $50 billion consumption and savings boost as the next decadal wage revision for central govt employees and pensioners, due in Jan 2026, will trigger salary hikes for state govt employees and public sector undertakings.
According to a report by UBS, the 8th central pay commission pay hike will shape India’s economic trajectory from 2026-28, with around 3.1 crore people — 1.8 crore govt employees and 1.3 crore pensioners — standing to benefit. UBS expects the hike to boost savings more than consumption, while keeping India’s fiscal position stable, with govt focused on macro stability and investment-led growth.
UBS outlines three scenarios for the 8th CPC wage hike. Its base case assumes a 15-20% increase, below 24% recommended last time, raising wage bill by Rs 4.5 lakh crore ($50 billion), without disrupting macro forecasts. A 20-25% hike could briefly boost GDP growth but push up interest rates. A steeper 40-45% increase could weaken rupee, spike inflation, force RBI to hike rate and initially accelerate but later dampen GDP growth.

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