US President Donald Trump renewed his call for a full percentage point interest rate cut on Wednesday, citing “great” inflation numbers just released by the Labor Department. “CPI JUST OUT. GREAT NUMBERS! FED SHOULD LOWER ONE FULL POINT. WOULD PAY MUCH LESS INTEREST ON DEBT COMING DUE. SO IMPORTANT!!!” Trump posted on Truth Social, amplifying pressure on the Federal Reserve to act decisively.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% in May from a year earlier, slightly higher than April’s 2.3% but still within a relatively tame range. Core inflation—which excludes food and energy—remained steady at 2.8% for the third straight month. On a month-over-month basis, both headline and core inflation ticked up just 0.1%.The mild headline figures mask complex undercurrents. Grocery prices rose 0.3% from April to May, and are up 2.2% on the year. Price increases were also seen in toys, games, and large appliances—areas potentially exposed to tariffs. Yet declines in the cost of new and used cars, airfares, and hotel stays helped offset the broader impact, at least temporarily.Economists say these soft readings may not last.“You can point to seeing tariffs in this report, but the more important message is that you’re seeing inflation soften enough elsewhere that overall, price pressures continue to subside for the US consumer,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, as quoted by AP. “I don’t think this report signals an all clear—that tariffs are not going to be a concern for the inflation picture.”Trump’s new tariff regime—55% on all Chinese imports, 10% on goods from all other countries, and 50% on steel and aluminum—has so far had a delayed effect on prices. Analysts attribute this to companies front-loading inventories before duties kicked in and holding off on price hikes amid fluctuating trade announcements.However, that buffer may be ending. Bryan Eshelman, managing director at AlixPartners, expects retail prices—especially for back-to-school items like backpacks and clothes—to jump between 5% and 15% by July.The J.M. Smucker Company has already raised coffee prices in May and plans another hike in August, citing rising costs from 10% tariffs on imports from Brazil and Vietnam. CEO Mark Smucker said green coffee imports—500 million pounds annually—are currently their largest tariff exposure.The Federal Reserve, facing inflation that still runs above its 2% target, is likely to remain cautious. Chair Jerome Powell and others have said they will wait for clearer signs of how tariffs are affecting the economy before moving on rates.
