India is facing a difficult strategic choice after the US imposed a steep 50% country-specific tariff on most Indian goods, on top of existing duties, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). Founder Ajay Srivastava was quoted by news agency PTI as saying that the options range from negotiating or retaliating to diversifying export markets, or even offering concessions such as halting Russian oil imports in exchange for tariff relief. “Each option carries a different mix of gains and risks,” he said.Srivastava noted that high tariffs could cost India around $50 billion, with potential recovery of only $10–15 billion in the first two years through diversification to regions such as Europe, ASEAN, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. He added that India would require “structural reforms and aggressive trade diplomacy” to absorb the blow.The GTRI chief also suggested that India should “quietly highlight the tariffs’ cost to American voters,” as higher prices and unemployment in the US might prompt Washington to cut duties to around 15% for all countries. “In an era when economic power is used as a weapon, survival isn’t about avoiding confrontation. It’s about picking the right battles, anticipating the next move, and playing for the long win,” he said.The US has imposed a 25% tariff from August 7, with another 25% due from August 27 as a penalty for India’s purchases of Russian crude oil and military equipment. The move is expected to hit exports of nine product categories, including shrimp, apparel, organic chemicals, and jewellery, by 50–70%.Bilateral trade talks continue despite the tariff dispute. Commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal on Thursday confirmed that both sides remain “fully engaged” ahead of the next scheduled round from August 25, although the US has not formally confirmed its delegation’s visit. The two countries aim to conclude the first phase of a bilateral trade agreement by September–October 2025 and to more than double trade to $500 billion by 2030, up from $191 billion at present.
