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Currency watch: Rupee ends 18 paise lower at 86.70 against dollar; trade jitters and Fed uncertainty weigh on sentiment

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The rupee gave up early gains and settled 18 paise lower at 86.70 against the US dollar on Monday, pressured by persistent month-end dollar demand from importers and caution ahead of key trade and monetary policy decisions.After opening at 86.47 at the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit briefly strengthened to an intra-day high of 86.40 before slipping to the day’s low of 86.70, where it eventually settled. On Friday, the rupee had closed at 86.52, PTI reported.Traders attributed the rupee’s weakness to broad dollar strength following the EU-US trade pact and lingering uncertainty over India’s own trade talks with the US ahead of the August 1 deadline.“The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar, mirroring the trend of most Asian currencies. This weakening is largely attributed to the strengthening dollar, which gained momentum following the recent EU-US trade deal,” said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.Parmar added that the spot USD-INR pair may find support at 86.10 and resistance at 86.75 in the near term.The dollar index rose 0.54% to 98.17, while Brent crude climbed 0.85% to $69.02 per barrel amid optimism that the EU-US deal could support future energy demand.In equities, the BSE Sensex dropped 572.07 points (0.70%) to 80,891.02 and the Nifty fell 156.10 points (0.63%) to 24,680.90. Foreign investors net sold shares worth Rs 6,082.47 crore, according to exchange data.“Rupee is trading with a slight negative bias amid uncertainty ahead of the August 1 trade deal deadline,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. “Month-end dollar demand from importers may also weigh on the domestic currency. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 86.35 to Rs 86.90.”He added that investor caution ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will also keep pressure on the rupee.Meanwhile, weak domestic data added to market nervousness. India’s industrial output grew just 1.5% in June, the slowest pace in 10 months, hit by poor performance in mining and power sectors due to excess rains.India’s forex reserves also declined by $1.183 billion to $695.489 billion in the week ended July 18, RBI data showed. Reserves had reached an all-time high of $704.885 billion in September 2024.

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