The chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032 have reduced from the previously thought 3.1 per cent to about 1.5 per cent, according to NASA. 

Named the ‘city-killer’, the asteroid, expected to be between 130 and 330 feet wide, was detected in December last year. Although the possibility of it striking Earth was concerning, further information has shown that the risk has lowered.

According to the European Space Agency (ESA), the risk is still 2.8%. There’s also a 0.8% probability that the asteroid may strike the Moon rather than Earth on December 22, 2032.

Uncertainty

According to astronomers, an increasing chance of impact is normal as they gather more data about the asteroid’s orbit. As more observations come, the uncertainty around its orbit will shrink, which may increase the estimated risk. 

If future calculations show that Earth is no longer within the asteroid’s possible trajectory, the impact probability will quickly drop to zero, they said as per CNN.

NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California has been tracking the asteroid, which passes Earth every four years. Several telescopes are being used by astronomers to study the space rock to determine its size and orbit, which will probably show a lower probability of a 2032 impact than what the data now indicates.

On the Torino Scale, 2024 YR4’s ranking of 3 indicates that current calculations show a 1 per cent or higher chance of a collision that could cause localised damage. However, astronomers expect that further observations will likely downgrade it to Level 0. 

Richard Binzel, inventor of the scale, said that attention by the public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.

Astronomers have just started tracking its journey around the Sun, so it’s difficult to know exactly where it will be in the future.