The United Nations revised its global economic growth forecast downward to 2.4% for 2025, down from 2.9 in 2024, warning that rising trade tensions, looming policy uncertainty, and geopolitical volatility are weighing down the world economy to a fragile position.The report also showed a slowdown in major economies. In China, the economy is expected to grow at 4.6% from 5% in 2024, dragged down by weak consumer demand, disrupted export-oriented manufacturing and challenges in the property sector.Despite solid growth in the first quarter, net exports are expected to push down the overall growth in 2025 due to tariff-related shocks. However, policy measures introduced in March 2025, aimed at boosting consumption, encouraging investment, and stabilizing the property market are likely to cushion the impact.Recently, in a bid to boost domestic demand amid growing external pressures, the People’s Bank of China cut policy rates. Alongside this, it also launched a more ambitious fiscal expansion, increasing the fiscal deficit from 3% of GDP in 2024 to 4% in 2025, to fund a variety of measures.In the longer term, advancing structural reforms to drive the economy toward domestic consumption remains crucial for sustained resilience.The report showed that unemployment in the country increased modestly during early 2025 and increasing US tariffs were further expected to pressurise the export oriented industries even more.It further said that China, a large economy, has seen wage gains in recent years.

Global front

The report says that emerging economies such as Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa are also seeing downward revisions, as falling commodity prices and weaker investment weigh on their prospects.According to the report, the global economy remains fragile amid rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty. It also warned that a sharp rise in US tariffs could drive up production costs, disrupt global supply chains, and heighten financial instability.