Nasa has identified an asteroid with a 3.1 percent chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032, making it the most significant impact risk ever recorded by modern forecasting. Despite the rising probability, experts assure there is no cause for alarm, as global space agencies continue monitoring its trajectory.
The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, was first detected on December 27, 2023, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Nasa estimates its size between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) wide. While its composition appears typical, its high velocity—potentially nearing 40,000 miles per hour—could result in significant destruction if it enters Earth’s atmosphere.
“If it does impact, the most likely scenario is an airburst,” said Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the Planetary Society, noting it could explode midair with a force of about eight megatons of TNT—over 500 times the Hiroshima bomb. However, an impact crater remains a possibility if the asteroid is closer to the upper size estimate.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a warning memo on January 29 after the impact probability exceeded one percent. The risk has since fluctuated but continues trending upward. The European Space Agency (ESA) currently places the probability slightly lower at 2.8 percent.
“This is not a crisis at this point in time,” said Richard Moissl, head of ESA’s planetary defense office. “This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city.”
NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will begin detailed observations of 2024 YR4 in March, as the asteroid is currently moving away toward Jupiter and will not make a close approach again until 2028. Betts emphasized Webb’s capabilities in refining the asteroid’s trajectory, stating, “Webb is able to see things that are very, very dim.”
Possible impact locations identified by IAWN include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
While the risk remains uncertain, experts highlight that there is sufficient time to intervene if necessary. Nasa successfully demonstrated asteroid deflection technology in 2022 with its DART mission, which altered the course of a non-threatening space rock.
