Rajeev Dikshit
Ten months after Bhojpuri film star Dinesh Lal Yadav ‘Nirahua’ wrested the seat for BJP from Yadav family’s Dharmendra Yadav in the June 2022 bypoll, Union home minister Amit Shah laid the foundation of Hariharpur Music University dedicated to the gharana which has produced artists like Padma Vibhushan Chhannulal Mishra.“It was also an attempt to redeem the image of the district,” says Prabhat Mishra of Hariharpur village.
Development push
In March this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated Manduri Airport in Azamgarh, and a day later the first flight took off for Lucknow.
He also inaugurated a state university named after Raja Suheldev, a caste icon revered by Rajbhars, who hold sway over Azamgarh and surrounding districts, and have a party, SBSP, led by O P Rajbhar, that largely represents them.
After taking over as the chief minister in March 2017, Yogi Adityanath has put special focus on Azamgarh, bringing a slew of projects for infrastructure development and better connectivity with the rest of the country. The Purvanchal Expressway, inaugurated in 2021, has reduced travel time between Lucknow and Azamgarh to almost by 50%. Besides, projects like expansion of road and rail infra and introduction of a masterplan for planned development of Azamgarh town give hope to Nirahua that he will retain the seat against familiar rival, Dharmendra Yadav of SP.
Giving another perspective, lawyer Anup Barnwal says: “No doubt the pace of development has been accelerated in Azamgarh, which wasn’t as backward as its neighbouring districts of Purvanchal, courtesy SP patriarch late Mulayam Singh Yadav. However, people think that works done by the Modi-Yogi govts here will not give instant relief as all their plans are for the long term.”
Caste matrix
Businessman Ashutosh Rungta says BJP’s development works and Nirahua’s performance as an MP are talked about but elections are not fought solely on these. Azamgarh has over 35% population of Muslim and Yadav voters, and they have their unflinching support for SP.
Although SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, who won the seat in 2014, and his son Akhilesh, who retained it in 2019, are also known for their development initiative, including opening of a sugar mill in Sathiyavan, it’s a fact that they gain overwhelmingly from the concentration of Yadav and Muslim voters.
How this comes into play is reflected in the fact that a Yadav candidate has won the Azamgarh seat in general elections and bypolls 14 times out of 20, and Muslim candidates have won it thrice. SP had swept the district, winning all 10 assembly seats in 2022 — five in Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituency and five in Lalganj.
Jamali factor
The first time BJP won Azamgarh was in 2009, through local strongman and a known party-hopper, Ramakant Yadav. Now in jail in an old case, he is an SP MLA. Next, it was Nirahua in the 2022 bypoll when Akhilesh vacated the seat after winning from Karhal in the assembly polls and decided to don the hat of leader of opposition in UP.
Before that, Akhilesh had defeated Nirahua by 2.6 lakh votes in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when SP was in an alliance with BSP.
But the SP-BSP alliance broke just after the previous Lok Sabha elections and data show that what tilted the balance in Nirahua’s favour in the bypoll was the pres ence of former MLA Shah Alam Guddu Jamali in the field on a BSP ticket. Jamali garnered over 2.6 lakh votes to finish third, eating significantly into SP’s vote bank. Nirahua scraped past, winning by just 8,000 votes.
However, Jamali is now with SP. Akhilesh has made him an MLC and he is actively campaigning for Dharmendra. “This makes things tough for Nirahua,” says local political analyst and scholar Umar Siddiqui.
Dalit angle
Apart from the Muslim-Yadav factor, Dalit voters also play a crucial role here, which explains the success of BSP, which has won the seat four times in the past, equalling the performance of SP.
However, this time, BSP candidate Mashood Ahmed Ansari is not that well-known and is unlikely to garner the community’s votes the way Jamali did. This makes Nirahua’s task arduous.
“Nirahua had won 34% votes and Dharmendra just 1% less in the 2022 bypoll. If he has to retain the seat, he will have to significantly jack up his tally as this time it’s virtually a bipolar contest. Will he be able to do it?” asks Anoop Singh, a trader.