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India’s Q3 GDP growth expected between 6.2-6.3%; worst of slowdown may be behind for Indian economy

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The NSO projections indicate real GDP growth at 6.4 per cent and nominal GDP growth at 9.7 per cent for 2024-25. (AI image)

India Q3 GDP growth data FY 2024-25: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data for the third quarter of the current financial year are set to be released by the government later today. India’s economic growth slowed to a two year low of 5.4% in the second quarter of FY 2024-25, but economists are of the view that the worst of the slowdown is behind us.
A recent State Bank of India research report forecasts a 6.3 per cent GDP growth for fiscal year 2024-25, contingent upon the NSO maintaining its initial first and second quarter estimates. Based on analysis of 36 high-frequency indicators, the third quarter GDP growth is anticipated to range between 6.2 and 6.3 per cent.
The NSO projections indicate real GDP growth at 6.4 per cent and nominal GDP growth at 9.7 per cent for 2024-25.

A robust rural economy is contributing to overall stability and maintaining momentum across various sectors.
Reduced household inflation expectations are facilitating increased discretionary spending, thereby supporting demand-driven growth.
The third quarter of the current financial year shows positive trends in capital expenditure.
Capital expenditure demonstrates progress in Q3 FY25, with most states showing lower capex percentages against BE in FY25, yet gaining significant momentum in Q3 FY25, indicating positive future prospects.
Industrial production in manufacturing has seen an uptick from 3.3% in Q2 FY25 to 4.3% in Q3 FY25, whilst the SBI Index reflects an upward trend during the same quarter.
Corporate sector shows encouraging results with positive EBIDTA growth and margins (44 bps) following two quarters of decline, accompanied by considerable improvement in Corporate GVA quarter-over-quarter.
The third quarter of CY24 witnessed a slowdown, influenced by heightened geopolitical tensions, disrupted supply chains and resultant imported inflation. However, India maintained its position amongst the fastest-growing economies despite these global challenges.

GDP growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund’s recent global forecast projects India’s growth at 6.5 per cent for both the current and upcoming fiscal years, supported by strong domestic demand and governmental policy measures.

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