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At 2.1%, retail inflation falls to over 6-year low in June

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NEW DELHI: Retail inflation slumped to a 77-month low in June, led by a sharp moderation in food inflation, prompting some experts to say that a rate cut in the Aug meeting of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee may not be ruled out.Data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Monday showed that retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), rose by an annual 2.1 per cent in June, slower than the 2.8 per cent recorded in May. There was a decline of 72 basis points in the inflation of June compared to May, marking the lowest year-on-year inflation since January 2019. This is the eighth consecutive month that retail inflation has moderated.Food inflation, as measured by the all-India consumer food price index, fell by 1.1 per cent. There was a sharp decline of 205 basis points in food inflation in June compared to May 2025, and the food inflation in June was the lowest since January 2019, according to the statistics office data.

Rural inflation was lower at 1.7 per cent in June compared to urban inflation, which was recorded at 2.6 per cent. Vegetables inflation during June was at -19 per cent, while pulses and products fell by 11.8 per cent. Food and beverages inflation was at -0.2 per cent during June.“We are not ruling out the possibility of a final 25 basis points rate cut in the Aug 2025 meeting, carrying forward the front-loading seen in June 2025,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ratings agency Icra. She added that the agency expects CPI inflation to recede further and bottom out at 1.9 per cent in July 2025, despite an unfavourable base.Separate data released by the commerce and industry ministry showed wholesale price inflation entering the deflation territory at -0.1 per cent in June, led by a deflation in food and fuel. The negative rate of inflation in June is primarily due to a decrease in prices of food articles, mineral oils, manufacture of basic metals, crude petroleum, and natural gas, the ministry said.“Headline deflation was largely driven by deeper deflation in food and fuel WPI. Of the approximately 52 basis points fall in headline WPI year-on-year in June versus May, approximately 33 basis points (64 per cent) was on account of deeper food deflation, with another negative 5 basis points from fuel and power WPI,” said a note from Barclays.

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