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Industrial output growth inches up, headwinds seen

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NEW DELHI: Industrial output growth improved marginally in March, led by the electricity and manufacturing sectors, but mining remained a drag while the overall number for the crucial data remained sluggish.
Data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Monday showed the index of industrial production (IIP) rose an annual 3% in March compared to the downwardly revised six-month low of 2.7% in Feb and below the 5.5% in March last year. For the full fiscal year (2024-25), IIP growth was at 4% compared to the 5.9% in the previous fiscal year.

The electricity sector grew by 6.3% in March compared with the 3.6% in Feb but below the 8.6% in March last year. The manufacturing sector rose by 3% in March, marginally above the 2.8% in Feb but below the 5.9% in March last year.
The mining sector remained sluggish, growing 0.4% in March compared to 1.6% in Feb and below the 1.3% in March last year. The capital goods sector, a key gauge of industrial activity, grew by 2.4% in March, below the 8.2% in Feb and lower than the 7% in March last year.
“Monitoring consumption trends remains critical, given the ongoing unevenness in the domestic demand landscape. While rural demand shows signs of recovery, lagging urban demand remains a concern,” said Rajani Sinha, chief economist at ratings agency CareEdge.
Experts also said the geopolitical tensions and the tariff war could have an impact on the segment in the months ahead.
“The impact of tariff hikes, uncertainty on such changes, and slowing global growth is likely to weigh on manufacturing activity in the coming months. Export and investment demand are likely to be affected the most,” said D K Joshi, chief economist at ratings agency Crisil.

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