NEW YORK: In just a few weeks, the US tourism outlook has clouded as a result of some of President Donald Trump’s policy decisions, which have angered some foreign visitors and prompted fear of a surge in prices and a stronger dollar.
Foreign traveller arrivals US are expected to decline by 5.1% in 2025 compared to last year, against a previously projected rise of 8.8%, said a Tourism Economics report published last month. Since the report’s publication, “the situation has deteriorated further”, and the outcome will likely be even worse, Tourism Economics chief Adam Sacks said, citing “effects of antipathy towards the US.”
“A situation with polarising Trump govt policies and rhetoric… will discourage travel to the US,” said Tourism Economics, a subsidiary of Oxford Economics. “Some organizations will feel pressure to avoid hosting events in the US, or sending employees to the US, cutting into business travel,” it added. The World Tourism Forum Institute said a mix of stringent immigration policies, a strong dollar and global political tensions “could significantly affect” global arrivals, “potentially reshaping the nation’s tourism sector for years to come”. Among residents of 16 European and Asian nations surveyed in Dec, 35% respondents said they were less likely to come to the US under Trump, while 22% were more likely.
Tourists from Western Europe who made up 37% of visitors in 2024 are the most likely to choose other destinations, along with Canadians and Mexicans. The US Travel Association said early Feb customs tariffs would deter Canadians, the largest contingent of foreign tourists in the US with 20.4 million in 2024.
In New York, which welcomed 12.9 million foreign travellers in 2024, the effect is already noticeable, with Canadians cancelling tour bookings and a drop in online searches for hotels or Broadway shows, NYC Tourism president Julie Coker said. She lowered her forecast for the year in Feb but said so far, only Canadians are saying no to Trump’s America. “We’re not currently seeing anything from the UK or Europe,” because it’s too early, she said. But British and German authorities have warned their nationals to be extra vigilant with travel documents, over risk of arrest.
According to Tourism Economics, tourism sector could lose about $64 billion in revenue in 2025. Experts also fear effects of tightening immigration policy on major US-hosted events, such as Ryder Cup (2025), FIFA World Cup (2026), and 2026 Summer Olympics.